![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_5224.webp\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a>\ud83d\udcd6 Expert Political Judgment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
In it, Tetlock describes in detail the reasons and causes he has researched as to why the predictions of recognised experts are usually wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This phenomenon applies, for example, to the extinction of animal species, the supposed population explosion resulting in several million deaths from starvation, the submergence of the Netherlands below sea level before the 21st century, but also to the numerous current issues in science, economics, politics and society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For over two decades, Philip Tetlock researched and analysed vast amounts of data on the future predictions made by renowned experts, and then compared these with the outcomes that actually materialised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TETLOCK\u2019S FINDINGS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\ud83d\udc49 Many experts come across as self-assured in the media, but they tend to think in inflexible ways.
According to Tetlock\u2019s analyses, they often cling rigidly to their worldviews and, for this reason amongst others, draw completely incorrect conclusions about the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83d\udc49 Flexible people, on the other hand, who possess diverse perspectives on life, experience and knowledge, are demonstrably far better at forecasting the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83d\udcd6 SOME KEY POINTS FROM TETLOCK\u2019S BOOK<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u26d4\ufe0f Experts with grand, fixed theories frequently fail in their predictions of the future, as they usually ignore counter-evidence and twist facts to suit their views.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u26d4\ufe0fThe influence of self-confidence:
A striking correlation is that the more well-known and vocal an expert is in the media, the more inaccurate their predictions turn out to be in hindsight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u26d4\ufe0fLack of self-criticism:
Experts rarely learn from their incorrect predictions and misjudgements because they find excuses for their errors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2705 By contrast, people with lots of small ideas are more successful at predicting the future, as they combine their different approaches and correct their mistakes quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83c\udf0e IMPLICATIONS AND TETLOCK\u2019S RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PRACTICE<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\ud83c\udf31 Knowledge is not enough \ud83c\udf31
Expert knowledge alone does not protect against errors of judgement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83c\udf31 Open-mindedness \ud83c\udf31
Flexibility and questioning one\u2019s own opinions lead to far better forecasting results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83c\udf31 Better decisions \ud83c\udf31
According to Tetlock, institutions should always take diverse perspectives into account in their forecasts for the future, rather than relying on rigid ideologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83d\udcda Enjoy the read \u2600\ufe0f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
_____
_____
\ud83d\udca1 Feel free to follow me for inspiration and scientifically grounded strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
_____
\ud83d\udcda Check out the latest blog posts at<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83d\udd17 www.frankmendel.de\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2753Which predictions are correct \u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3126,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[203,125,206,188,216,62,12,215,33,219,56,11],"tags":[26,84,96,60,18],"powerkit_post_featured":[],"class_list":["post-3123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-coraggio","category-faconner-lavenir","category-focus","category-fokus","category-gedanken","category-good-ideas","category-gute-ideen","category-inspiration","category-lebensfreude","category-plasmare-il-futuro","category-shape-the-future","category-zukunft-gestalten","tag-begeisterung","tag-entusiasmo","tag-futuro","tag-shape-the-future","tag-zukunft"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3123"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3123\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3151,"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3123\/revisions\/3151"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3123"},{"taxonomy":"powerkit_post_featured","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.frankmendel.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/powerkit_post_featured?post=3123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/a>